Israel-Iran ceasefire has collapsed with bilateral strikes resuming and a Houthi missile paralyzing Ben Gurion airport, marking the most acute Middle East escalation in 100 days of intermittent conflict. A magnitude 7.8 earthquake off Mindanao with tsunami warnings across Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan and Taiwan has killed at least 8 and threatens regional shipping lanes and semiconductor supply chains. South Korean equities triggered circuit breakers down nearly 9%, oil markets remain dislocated despite the 'biggest supply shock in history' framing, and Strait of Hormuz transit fees have risen to $1.5-2M per vessel.
Israel-Iran ceasefire collapses; bilateral strikes resume defying Trump restraint plea
Israel launched airstrikes on multiple Iranian cities after intercepting Iranian missile fire, breaking the April ceasefire. Netanyahu reportedly told Trump 'I call the shots' as IDF chief commands the operation. ⊕ TRACE 01
Iranian missile launches at Israel — the first since the April truce — combined with Israeli strikes on Beirut suburbs days earlier ruptured the fragile US-brokered de-escalation framework.
Multi-city Israeli strike package against Iranian infrastructure; Iranian retaliatory missile barrage; activation of Israeli air defense intercepts; satellite imagery confirms damage across Iran.
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SHIPPING24H
Houthi-aligned and Iran-proxy attacks expand beyond Ben Gurion to Gulf and Red Sea shipping
EVIDENCE ▸Yemeni resistance missile attack paralyzes Israel's Ben Gurion airport
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SHIPPING3-7 DAYS
War-risk insurance premiums for VLCCs through Hormuz double; tanker owners delay loadings
EVIDENCE ▸Vessels pay $1.5-2 million under new Strait of Hormuz services plan
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ENERGY2-4 WEEKS
Asian refiners draw down strategic reserves and bid up alternative Atlantic Basin crude grades
PROJECTEDFORWARD INFERENCE — NO SOURCE SIGNAL CITED -
FINANCIAL60-90 DAYS
India FY27 GDP forecast revised lower on sustained $90+ Brent; rupee weakness deepens
EVIDENCE ▸india s fy27 gdp growth seen slowing amid oil shock says nuvama
Confirmed strike on Iranian nuclear facility OR closure of Strait of Hormuz exceeding 48 hours OR Brent close above $120 — any single event escalates threat level to BLACK and triggers full Mideast war scenario activation.